Easley, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

648
FXUS62 KGSP 271043
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
643 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Oppressive heat and humidity continue into the first part of the new
workweek, with dangerous heat index expected each afternoon through
Wednesday.  Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be isolated
to widely scattered, except in the North Carolina mountains, where
coverage will be better.  A cold front will finally arrive late in
the week, boosting afternoon shower and storm coverage beginning
Thursday, as well as ushering in much-needed relief from the heat.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 135 AM Sunday: The big story will continue to be the heat,
as temps will be similar to, if not a deg or two warmer, than
yesterday. Dewpts still expected to mix out into the mid to upper
60s this aftn, but with highs in the upper 90s to 100-102, much of
the Piedmont and southern NC Foothills will see max heat indices
reach 105+. Based on the latest guidance, the current heat advisory
looks good. As for convection, the 00z CAMs suggest less coverage
than the NBM PoPs indicate. With the center of the 500 mb high
nearby, it makes sense today may be the most suppressed day. The
00z HRRR does have a cluster of showers and storms form across the
eastern SC Piedmont and most of the Charlotte area after 00z. Not
sure what it is keying in on, but fcst soundings are uncapped and
fairly unstable. So if a couple outflows off the mountains can
merge with anything that may trigger to the east within a thermal
sfc trough, we could see some strong storms. Convection should
slowly wane late evening and with clearing skies, allow another
night of mountain valley fog development. Temps will continue to
be several deg above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1211 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) 105+ heat indices expected on Monday and Tuesday afternoon.

2) Heat Advisories will likely be necessary both days.

3) Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely develop
across the entire area Monday afternoon, which will help moderate
otherwise-oppressive afternoon heat.

Still not much change to the short term forecast.  Expect deep
subtropical ridging to continue across the Southeast, retrograding
westward and flattening slightly in response to a z500 shortwave and
weak associated surface front dipping down out of the Ohio Valley.
As noted by the previous forecaster, operational guidance remains
in good agreement on scattered convective activity across the area,
where even outside the mountains the passing feature will provide
a focus for initiation and modestly improve lapse rates...and
accordingly, the latest NBM cycle has begun to respond to this
trend in the deterministic guidance...advertising a 25-35% PoP
across the NC Piedmont and SC Upstate.

As a result of this convection and associated cloud cover...forecast
highs Monday have actually trended slightly cooler, and dewpoints
are expected to mix out to a greater degree than previously
expected...resulting in lower heat indices...generally in the
105-109 range south of I-85, with only isolated to widely scattered
occurrence of 110+.  So, a Heat Advisory will be issued from noon
to 8 PM Monday, with no plans for a excessive heat watch/warning.

As the ridge begins breaking down across the area, and thicknesses
drop, temperatures will wind up slightly cooler on Tuesday.
Still expect widespread 100-109 heat indices across the low terrain,
but little to no 110+.  Tuesday looks like it`ll again feature at
least widely scattered convection even outside the mountains...with
some remnant shortwave energy aloft to drive initiation.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 104 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Oppressive heat continues through at least Thursday, with
advisory criteria heat index possible each afternoon.

2) Relief comes in the form of a cold front on Friday, which will
usher in cooler and drier air for next weekend.

3) Convection will return to more seasonable coverage as this
front arrives.

On Wednesday and Thursday, a deep upper low will translate east
of the Hudson Bay into Quebec, driving a 500mb trough across the
eastern United States...and flattening the already-deteriorating
subtropical ridge.  Wednesday and Thursday, thicknesses will
remain high enough to support advisory-criteria heat index
both afternoons...but generally expect a slow cooling trend
through late week.  Then, as a robust shortwave axis drops out
of the Ohio Valley, the ridge will finally buckle, and a strong
backdoor cold front will cross the western Carolinas Friday.
Some convection appears likely with this FROPA, but as noted in
previous discussions, the environment looks less-than-favorable
for any severe weather.

The front will settle somewhere across the Southeast going into
the weekend...possibly providing a focus for additional convection
on Saturday...but the more noticeable impact will be drastically
cooler temperatures.  To wit, high temperatures on Saturday will
barely hit 80 degrees across the low terrain - maybe not even in
the Foothills and some parts of the I-40 corridor - some 15-20
degrees cooler than highs just two days prior.  Widespread cloud
cover is expected as post-frontal high pressure settles off the
Connecticut-Long Island coast...and the extended forecast ends
with the Carolinas ensconced in cold-air damming.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Mountain valley fog and NWLY flow upslope
stratocu across much of the NC mountains early this morning,
and clear elsewhere. VFR conditions expected to prevail at all
TAF sites through the period. Like yesterday, the mountains have
the best chance for afternoon convection, so PROB30 limited to
KAVL. The latest high-res guidance does show isolated to widely
scattered convection across the Piedmont. This seems to warrant
at least a VCSH for KCLT. Scattered VFR cumulus field expected to
develop by midday and continue until around sunset. Winds will be
light, favoring a NW direction today.

Outlook: More convectively active weather is expected to start
Monday and continue thru the workweek, with numerous to widespread
diurnal convection in the mountains, and scattered to numerous
convection in the Piedmont, especially later in the week. Low
stratus and/or fog will be possible each morning...mainly in the
mtn valleys.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-27

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      97 1952     70 1946     72 1936     48 1911
                                        1925
   KCLT     103 1940     74 1926     76 2022     57 1920
                                        2016
                                        1944
   KGSP     103 1940     70 1946     75 2012     54 1911
                                        1944



RECORDS FOR 07-28

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      98 1952     68 1890     70 2010     53 1895
                                        1878
                                        1877
   KCLT     102 1952     70 1890     78 2016     54 1962
   KGSP     103 1952     72 1926     76 2016     60 1911
                                        1936        1904



RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      98 1952     67 1984     74 1877     55 1911
                                                    1895
   KCLT     103 1952     72 1984     77 1993     59 1920
   KGSP     104 1952     70 1984     76 1949     59 1911
                                        1936



RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      93 1954     68 1936     72 2011     54 2014
                                        1878        1897
                                                    1895
   KCLT     101 2011     71 1981     77 1953     58 1914
                                        1941
   KGSP     101 1999     73 1981     77 2011     60 1914
                                                    1911
                                                    1884



RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      95 1999     65 1936     71 2011     53 1986
                                                    1914
   KCLT     100 1999     69 1936     77 1941     56 1914
                1931                    1931
                1915
   KGSP     104 1999     71 2014     78 1999     56 1936
                                        1931

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 2 AM EDT Monday for GAZ018-
     026-028-029.
     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for GAZ018-026-028-
     029.
NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 2 AM EDT Monday for NCZ036-
     037-056-057-068>072-082-508-510.
     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ035>037-056-
     057-068>072-082-508-510.
SC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 2 AM EDT Monday for
     SCZ008>014-019-104>109.
     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for SCZ008>014-019-
     104>109.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ARK
CLIMATE...